Jiayi Liu

Assistant Professor, Virginia Tech

4. Recency effect in transplant decision-making


Working Paper


Jiayi Liu, Gordon Gao

Cite

Cite

APA   Click to copy
Liu, J., & Gao, G. 4. Recency effect in transplant decision-making.


Chicago/Turabian   Click to copy
Liu, Jiayi, and Gordon Gao. “4. Recency Effect in Transplant Decision-Making” (n.d.).


MLA   Click to copy
Liu, Jiayi, and Gordon Gao. 4. Recency Effect in Transplant Decision-Making.


BibTeX   Click to copy

@article{jiayi-a,
  title = {4. Recency effect in transplant decision-making},
  author = {Liu, Jiayi and Gao, Gordon}
}

Human decision-making is often guided by heuristics—cognitive shortcuts that can lead to systematic biases. Whether such heuristics influence the judgments of highly trained experts is a critical question for organizational performance. We investigate one of the most prominent, the availability heuristic, whereby a recent, salient adverse outcome can disproportionately influence subsequent decision-making in the context of U.S. kidney transplantation. We leverage the salience of negative news—the asynchronous arrival of information about an early graft failure—as a quasi-experimental "news shock," and test whether if it influences the subsequent decision making of kidney offer acceptance. Using national data on nearly four million kidney offers and a difference-in-differences design, we find that a recent graft failure causes a significant decline in a center's willingness to accept subsequent organs. This effect is short-lived, concentrated in clinically ambiguous cases, and amplified when decisions are made under greater cognitive load. Further analyses confirm this behavioral response is a suboptimal heuristic and rules out that it is a form of beneficial organizational learning. Our findings provide large-scale, causal evidence of an availability cascade in a high-stakes organizational setting and suggest that operational interventions designed to mitigate the impact of salient negative events could improve the efficiency of the organ allocation system.